If We Want to Know How Politicians Make Decisions

Up here in Maine, lobster is queen, king, the whole dang chessboard. So the stuff really hit the fan when a sustainable seafood guide put Gulf of Maine lobster on their red list because North Atlantic right whales were getting tangled in fishing gear.

"This designation is flat out wrong," said Governor Janet Mills.

"Misguided, uninformed, reckless," said Congresswoman Chellie Pingree.

"Simply absurd," said Senator Angus King.

When you hear this level of indignation, the subtext is simple: the politician wants to be seen as Rocky Balbao for their district, a real fighter. "I went to the mat time and again for my constituents," is a well-worn rug in campaign speeches.

Here we have a hidden-in-plain-sight clue into politicians' decision-making: how will an issue play in their district? And tucked just underneath this: how will it make the politician look in their district? If it makes them look like a fighter, you've got a winner.

Anti-cheese initiatives will be a hard sell in Wisconsin (though Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin says lactose intolerant candidates could conceivably win statewide office, but perhaps shouldn't lead with their dairy woes). Pro-corn projects, though, may have a real audience in Iowa.

If I want a politician to join in my cause, it's useful to know a bit about their district. Elected officials are beholden to the folks who vote them in. Flagship industries - like wheat in Kansas or coal in West Virginia - can often translate into major voting blocs or campaign benefactors.

If your issue doesn't touch a major industry, are there particular constituencies impacted? If I want to plus up breast cancer research funding, it'd be helpful to find good, reliable data on the number of people with breast cancer in the district. I particularly like to juxtapose that data against state or national data to give politicians a sense of where their district falls.

You could also look at colleges/universities, ports, natural resources, infrastructure, military bases, airports, faith or immigrant communities populating a member's home turf. Do any of them stand to benefit from our issue?

If you really want to gild the lily, you could look at legislators' social media to see where they've been ribbon cutting or who've they've been meeting with. Kansas Congressman Tracey Mann posted about meeting with Heinen Brothers Ag Solutions, which provides aerial spraying to crops. Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley posted about meeting with the Veronica Robles Cultural Center, which promotes Latin American arts and culture. Those are clearly valued constituencies.

So here's the math, as I see it: A politician who wants to serve their district + Our issue wrapped in a good, true (if possible data-informed) story of how it will serve their district = Pretty compelling combo.